Good Thursday morning. To start the week we barely had a day of (some) selling pressure in US equities and the same people that rarely (if ever) beat the markets are already warning of a severe market correction.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. After spending more than a year writing “The Big Bribe” Tyler and I published it just prior to the 10/13/22 bear market lows. We forecast a boom time in America, with the Roaring 2020’s as the theme.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. The AI “king of the hill” did it again yesterday with Nvidia posting (another) quarter with absolutely stunning growth.
NVDA Bottom Line, as Tyler outlined in his podcast yesterday:
- Earned $5.16/sh, beating already sky-high estimates of $4.64/sh.
- Revenue also came in above expectations, totaling $22.1 billion vs forecasts for $20.5 billion.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. Long-time VRA Members may remember that from the end of the bear market (10/13/22) we’ve written often about the “action” of this market and the fact that it’s largely been “textbook bull market action”. We’ve seen this repeating pattern again this week, as the Nasdaq and Semis continue to rally into market closes finishing at/near their highs of the day.
Read MoreGood Friday morning. As if right on cue, the semis and megacap tech stocks surged to ATH’s yesterday, in advance of Q4 tech earnings that kick off in earnest next week. When the semis (SMH), tech (XLK) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are hitting new ATH’s together they’re giving us a crystal-ball road-map for the broader markets.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. Following what has been a near-parabolic move higher from the 10/27 lows, strength in the semiconductors has now led to key breakouts for the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Housing stocks, negating what had bears believed was a picture-perfect short for these indices at resistance
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. Following the parabolic move higher in each major US equity index from the 10/27 lows…just as seasonality was turning bullish…on the VRA System we now have each index hitting extreme overbought levels, but importantly this is only on our shortest term momentum oscillators. Combined with the shockingly bullish technical signals that we’ve seen over the last 8 trading days it remains our view that important lows are in place and that pullbacks from here should continue to be bought (if we have pullbacks, that is).
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. Third quarter GDP was reported this AM and showed blistering growth in the US economy of 4.9%, beating estimates of 4.5%. This is the strongest economic growth since Q4 2021 when growth was just shy of 7% (coronavirus insanity). Of note in the report, consumer spending rose 4% in Q3, soaring past Q2 consumer spending, which came in at just .8%.
Read MoreWe started the week with each US broad market index trading at (or “very" near) our most overbought designation on the VRA Investing System; “extreme overbought on steroids”…
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. Charles Payne of Fox Business had me back on his show ‘Making Money’ yesterday and the events surrounding it were interesting. Here’s how it works: First, one of Charles producers emails you a day or two before and ask if you’re available for the show. Second, they ask you to send over your latest “hit” (VRA Letter). I’m assuming they do this so they can see whether or not what you’re saying is interesting and/or worthy of being on air. Third, they let you know whether or not you’re officially invited onto the show.
Read MoreIt hasn’t been straight up from the 10/13 bear market lows but in (most) ways this has been a textbook bull market move higher. From the overwhelming level of fear from 3 bear markets in 4 years to last years August — October waterfall mini-meltdown that culminated in the 10/13 bear market capitulation, from those lows the move higher has checked all of the “new bull market” boxes.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. A major investing theme, as taught to me in my 20’s by both of my mentors (Ted Parsons and Mike Metz, RIP gentlemen) goes like this;
Read MoreBreaking: Treasury yields lost momentum this AM, with stock markets reversing higher, after the Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims rose to 211K last week, up from 190K the week before and more than the 195K forecast by analysts. The 10-year yield sits at 3.96%, after trading above 4% before the data. The data indicates the labor market may be weakening (due to higher interest rates).
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Another day, another "lower open” that was met with buying pressure throughout the day, leading to another strong smart money hour and resulting in (another) troubling pattern for the bears. And it’s not just that its happened every day so far this week, it’s been the repeating pattern of 2023. Add that market internals were right at 2:1 positive…again, another repeating pattern this year…combined with another day where we had more 52 week highs than lows, an event that has taken place every day so far this year.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. From the 10/13 capitulation lows it’s been our view that the equity markets have bottomed and that rates, the US dollar and inflation have all peaked. The action in semis/tech and housing have solidified our views. When the most important market/economic elements of the VRA Investing System… are leading the markets higher…
Read MoreWith 4 days of trading left in the first month of the new year the S&P 500 is up 5.2% with the tech heavy Nasdaq up a massive 9.3%. Should January finish higher it will complete the “bullish trifecta” for the Stock Trader Almanac, joining the Santa Claus rally and first 5 trading days of the new year in being up. When all 3 are higher it bodes exceptionally well for full year results.
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. From the 10/13/22 capitulation lows we’ve been witness to a textbook “new bull market”. It’s only just the beginning of a new bull market…one that should last years…just know that we have hit heavily overbought readings on the VRA Investing System (more on this later):
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Not only was yesterday's huge move higher in stocks a textbook display of a new bull market (with semis up 5%, nasdaq +4%, leading the way higher), but we saw it in the internals as well with an 88% upside volume day for NYSE and near 7:1 advance/decline. No one was buying J Powells hawkish comments…the markets know what’s coming next (rate cuts).
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. “Shock and awe” might be the best way to describe the short covering melt-up yesterday as stocks had their best day since the end of coronavirus insanity.
Read MoreThe short-covering move higher to start the week marked the best start to a 4th quarter since 1938. The move may have been fueled by short covering and the extreme oversold (on steroid) conditions that we’ve been pointing out.
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"Kip's VRA financial newsletter is a MUST read for every saavy investor in this country. Disregard it at your own peril. His mantra is my mantra. Kip Herriage's newsletter is my financial Bible."
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2008 Libertarian Vice Presidential candidate
Author, "The Conscience of a Libertarian"
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