Good Thursday morning. As I explained on my podcast yesterday, J Powell went off script at his presser and likely just made “another” policy mistake, which will be his 5th since taking the appointment to Fed Chair.
I repeat; J Powell is the worst Fed Chair of my time…
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. This morning's CPI report came in slightly above estimates with September prices paid for consumers rising .04% month/month vs estimates of .03%. Year over year, core CPI came in at 4.1% vs estimates of 4.1%.
Read MoreGood Friday morning. The worst week of the year for US equity markets ends today, punctuated by this week’s FOMC meeting/statement and J Powell presser, which…once again…led to a steep sell-off in stocks…Powell’s specialty.
Read MoreLast year, and well into 2023, you could throw a rock at 100 mainstream economists…grouped together like sardines…and not hit a single one that wasn’t predicting a recession (outside of Evercore’s Ed Hyman, that is). It was essentially unanimous; the US was headed into a recession and it was barreling towards us like a freight train.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. A bit of air is coming out of the tech melt-up move higher this AM, post earnings reports, as Netflix (-6%), VRA 10-bagger Tesla (-4%) and IBM (-2%) are each selling off this AM. The moves higher in each has been parabolic this year and with our markets trading at extreme overbought levels on the VRA System, a shake-out does not surprise. Nasdaq is -120 in premarket.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. So I’m working out this morning when Delta Airlines reported earnings…a record beating quarter for both revenue and earnings…which included the statement that they are ordering a massive number of new planes to keep up with soaring travel demand…
Read MoreDo you believe in history repeating?
I’m Getting a 1995–2000 Vibe.
From 1995–2000, Nasdaq rose from 750 to 5132, soaring 584%. Over a 3 year time frame more than 500 companies went public that more than doubled on their first day of trading.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. Charles Payne of Fox Business had me back on his show ‘Making Money’ yesterday and the events surrounding it were interesting. Here’s how it works: First, one of Charles producers emails you a day or two before and ask if you’re available for the show. Second, they ask you to send over your latest “hit” (VRA Letter). I’m assuming they do this so they can see whether or not what you’re saying is interesting and/or worthy of being on air. Third, they let you know whether or not you’re officially invited onto the show.
Read MoreIt hasn’t been straight up from the 10/13 bear market lows but in (most) ways this has been a textbook bull market move higher. From the overwhelming level of fear from 3 bear markets in 4 years to last years August — October waterfall mini-meltdown that culminated in the 10/13 bear market capitulation, from those lows the move higher has checked all of the “new bull market” boxes.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. In Tuesdays Letter I wrote the following…
“J Powell is the most unpredictable Fed Chair of our times and the root of his unpredictability lies in the fact that he desperately wants to be taken seriously. Powell is highly unpredictable. That’s a dangerous trait in a Fed Chair.
Read MoreBreaking; we just learned that the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge (core PCE) fell to 4.2% in March from 5.1% in February. This marks 8 straight months that we’ve had “disinflation”. With both US and European GDP reports coming in weak, we reiterate our call for the Fed to cease rate hikes and to begin cutting rates. The 10 year yield is 3.44% this AM while the Fed funds rate is 5%. The Fed never leads, they only follow. The markets are screaming at the Fed to “pause and pivot”.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. A major investing theme, as taught to me in my 20’s by both of my mentors (Ted Parsons and Mike Metz, RIP gentlemen) goes like this;
Read MoreAs our markets complete their overbought “pause”, we believe seasonality is playing a major role as the second half of February is historically weak. It’s actually one of the worst two weeks periods of the year.
But soon, our overbought sell-off will be behind us. Based on VRA System readings, by weeks end we should be hitting oversold levels that typically mark reversals higher, especially near the birth of new bull markets.
Good Thursday morning all. Another day, another "lower open” that was met with buying pressure throughout the day, leading to another strong smart money hour and resulting in (another) troubling pattern for the bears. And it’s not just that its happened every day so far this week, it’s been the repeating pattern of 2023. Add that market internals were right at 2:1 positive…again, another repeating pattern this year…combined with another day where we had more 52 week highs than lows, an event that has taken place every day so far this year.
Read MoreGood Friday morning all and hope you had a great Christmas. Welcome to the final trading day of 2022. We start today's trading with 3 days left in the Santa Claus rally (today and first 2 days of 2023) and roughly 1 month left for the January effect, where history tells us that small caps outperform big cap stocks by a sizable margin, with tax loss selling in small caps the culprit for their year-end weakness.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Not only was yesterday's huge move higher in stocks a textbook display of a new bull market (with semis up 5%, nasdaq +4%, leading the way higher), but we saw it in the internals as well with an 88% upside volume day for NYSE and near 7:1 advance/decline. No one was buying J Powells hawkish comments…the markets know what’s coming next (rate cuts).
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. “Shock and awe” might be the best way to describe the short covering melt-up yesterday as stocks had their best day since the end of coronavirus insanity.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. If you were as confused as 99% of Wall Street and the English speaking people of the world were by Fed Chair J Powells presser yesterday, where he reverted to previous form and crushed the stock market, I encourage you to listen to Tylers podcast from yesterday afternoon:
Read More
"Kip's VRA financial newsletter is a MUST read for every saavy investor in this country. Disregard it at your own peril. His mantra is my mantra. Kip Herriage's newsletter is my financial Bible."
--Wayne Allyn Root
2008 Libertarian Vice Presidential candidate
Author, "The Conscience of a Libertarian"
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