As we head into the final two trading days of June, in advance of both a new month and quarter, we expect to see significant fund flows into stocks from retirement funds, pensions, share buybacks, etc. The investing public is beginning to come back into stocks, as are institutional investors…
Read MoreWe started the week with each US broad market index trading at (or “very" near) our most overbought designation on the VRA Investing System; “extreme overbought on steroids”…
Read MoreDo you believe in history repeating?
I’m Getting a 1995–2000 Vibe.
From 1995–2000, Nasdaq rose from 750 to 5132, soaring 584%. Over a 3 year time frame more than 500 companies went public that more than doubled on their first day of trading.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. Charles Payne of Fox Business had me back on his show ‘Making Money’ yesterday and the events surrounding it were interesting. Here’s how it works: First, one of Charles producers emails you a day or two before and ask if you’re available for the show. Second, they ask you to send over your latest “hit” (VRA Letter). I’m assuming they do this so they can see whether or not what you’re saying is interesting and/or worthy of being on air. Third, they let you know whether or not you’re officially invited onto the show.
Read MoreIt hasn’t been straight up from the 10/13 bear market lows but in (most) ways this has been a textbook bull market move higher. From the overwhelming level of fear from 3 bear markets in 4 years to last years August — October waterfall mini-meltdown that culminated in the 10/13 bear market capitulation, from those lows the move higher has checked all of the “new bull market” boxes.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. Yesterday we learned that CPI inflation fell to 4.9% (year over year), marking the 10th straight month where inflation has declined (also known as disinflation). However, the core reading, which strips out food and energy (because who of us eats food or uses energy) dipped to 5.5% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in March.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. In Tuesdays Letter I wrote the following…
“J Powell is the most unpredictable Fed Chair of our times and the root of his unpredictability lies in the fact that he desperately wants to be taken seriously. Powell is highly unpredictable. That’s a dangerous trait in a Fed Chair.
Read MoreBreaking; we just learned that the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge (core PCE) fell to 4.2% in March from 5.1% in February. This marks 8 straight months that we’ve had “disinflation”. With both US and European GDP reports coming in weak, we reiterate our call for the Fed to cease rate hikes and to begin cutting rates. The 10 year yield is 3.44% this AM while the Fed funds rate is 5%. The Fed never leads, they only follow. The markets are screaming at the Fed to “pause and pivot”.
Read MoreGood Friday morning. On Tuesday I wrote the following; “IMO, US markets are set up for a significant “short squeeze” higher. The combination of investor sentiment, seasonality, analytics and technicals are all aligned. This remains one of the best set-ups of my career, coming out of the bear market bottom on 10/13/22. We are well positioned for it.”
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. Disappointing afternoon action in the markets yesterday following the March CPI report (that was essentially in line), with talking heads reporting that the primary culprit for market weakness was FOMC minutes that forecasted a “mild recession” at the end of the year. If we listened to the talking heads we’d probably keep our heads in the sand and remain 100% in cash.
We continue to be bullish on stocks and look for a solid rest of the month which will likely include Q1 earnings that surprise to the upside. We’ll get a taste of Q1 tomorrow morning with JP Morgan and Citi earnings reports. If I didn’t dislike bank/financial stocks so much I would be a buyer here. I think they might just blow the doors off…certainly the behemoths.
This morning we got more proof that inflation continues to evolve into disinflation. Huge drop in PPI this AM. The Fed will cut rates by year end. Were it not for the Trump Economic Miracle we’d likely be in a deep recession today.
But even with this beat (to both CPI and PPI), the odds have increased that we have a “negative credit impulse” building with rising odds of a recession, certainly after the implosions of SVB and Signature Bank NY. The latest inflation reports did not capture these banking failures and potential credit crunch as it’s inherently backward looking. The CPI report is always a “fade” and I think this report is especially the case. A Fed pause and pivot should now be here. I’ll be surprised if the fed hikes again on 5/3, but we have 3 more weeks of data plus of course earnings reports of Q1.
My forecast (of the last 4 months) remains unchanged; the Fed will start cutting rates in the 4th quarter and by years end the 10 year yield will fall below 3%.
Financial markets and the Fed are reading from two different playbooks but as history has taught us well, the Fed never leads, they only follow.
Chart Review S&P 500
The largest and most important equity index in the world continues to flash “buy me”. From the 10/13 bear market lows…just classic capitulation…SPX has a clear series of higher highs and higher lows as it remains well above its 200 dma and has worked off its overbought levels over the last week. I expect a breakout to take place in the next 1–2 weeks which would lead to a rally to 4300 + (5% + from here).
Semis (SMH)
Full VRA System look at the chart of SMH, which has worked off its extreme overbought levels and looks ready to make its next major move higher.
Well above its 200 dma and advancing steadily from the 10/13 lows using the blue trend line as stellar support.
Check out the supporting trend lines for RSI and MFI. Again, perfection. As goes the semis, so goes the market.
Precious Metals and Miners; overbought but still flashing “BUY”
While the miners are hitting extreme overbought levels on the VRA System, our top buy signal for this group (precious metals) continues to flash strong buy.
Below is a chart of the relative strength of miners (GDX) to gold. When the miners are leading gold higher, its an extraordinarily strong buy signal.
This group has been doing exactly what it’s known for, acting as a discounting mechanism for what comes next; rate cuts and eventually more QE/money printing. The bull market of bull markets is underway for metals and miners.
Rising Housing, Transports, Semis and Bitcoin; discounting mechanisms and high probability correlations that tell us “the markets are headed higher”.
From our new book “The Big Bribe” (below). Housing is a long term bullish mega trend & should continue to propel the US economy. Housing bears are just plain wrong.
VRA Bottom Line: we remain long and strong as we’ve entered a top 2 month of the year and the best year period (pre-election years are highly bullish). As always, we’re keying off of the semis. We have been aggressively long from the 10/13 bear market lows and will likely remain long well into April, although last week we hit overbought levels that we paid attention to. We’ve now worked off those ST overbought levels and the markets reaction to Q1 earnings is “everything”. We look for the rest of April to be stellar.
Heads up; we have a target in mind for potentially taking profits on some of our ETF positions. It rhymes with “sell in May and go away”.
Until next time, thanks again for reading.
Kip
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Good Thursday morning all. A major investing theme, as taught to me in my 20’s by both of my mentors (Ted Parsons and Mike Metz, RIP gentlemen) goes like this;
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. VRA Quick hitters;
1) Weakness in European shares today as Deutsche Bank is down 15%, taking the European bank index down 5% on the day.
Read MoreAnother volatile day of trading yesterday influenced by fears of global bank runs. Of note, in the last two trading sessions the smart money hour was met with strong buying pressure (with tech leading the way).
Read MoreBreaking: Treasury yields lost momentum this AM, with stock markets reversing higher, after the Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims rose to 211K last week, up from 190K the week before and more than the 195K forecast by analysts. The 10-year yield sits at 3.96%, after trading above 4% before the data. The data indicates the labor market may be weakening (due to higher interest rates).
Read MoreThis morning we learned that weekly jobless claims came in at just 190,000, another incredibly low reading which backs up a series of economic data from the last 1–2 months that show the economy is actually accelerating, rather than slowing down.
Read MoreAs our markets complete their overbought “pause”, we believe seasonality is playing a major role as the second half of February is historically weak. It’s actually one of the worst two weeks periods of the year.
But soon, our overbought sell-off will be behind us. Based on VRA System readings, by weeks end we should be hitting oversold levels that typically mark reversals higher, especially near the birth of new bull markets.
Good Thursday morning all. Another day, another "lower open” that was met with buying pressure throughout the day, leading to another strong smart money hour and resulting in (another) troubling pattern for the bears. And it’s not just that its happened every day so far this week, it’s been the repeating pattern of 2023. Add that market internals were right at 2:1 positive…again, another repeating pattern this year…combined with another day where we had more 52 week highs than lows, an event that has taken place every day so far this year.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. From the 10/13 capitulation lows it’s been our view that the equity markets have bottomed and that rates, the US dollar and inflation have all peaked. The action in semis/tech and housing have solidified our views. When the most important market/economic elements of the VRA Investing System… are leading the markets higher…
Read MoreThe Jekyll and Hyde that is Fed Chair J Powell made another appearance yesterday, but instead of the ultra-hawisk Powell from the Jackson Hole Wyoming speech of last August (which crashed the markets) we got the sweetheart J Powell that, without question IMO, wanted to see stocks and bonds rise further still.
Read MoreWith 4 days of trading left in the first month of the new year the S&P 500 is up 5.2% with the tech heavy Nasdaq up a massive 9.3%. Should January finish higher it will complete the “bullish trifecta” for the Stock Trader Almanac, joining the Santa Claus rally and first 5 trading days of the new year in being up. When all 3 are higher it bodes exceptionally well for full year results.
Read More
"Kip's VRA financial newsletter is a MUST read for every saavy investor in this country. Disregard it at your own peril. His mantra is my mantra. Kip Herriage's newsletter is my financial Bible."
--Wayne Allyn Root
2008 Libertarian Vice Presidential candidate
Author, "The Conscience of a Libertarian"
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