Good Friday morning. We have a few VRA Quick Hitters for you this AM:
1.) 2025 Returns: Broad Market & VRA Portfolio…
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. Heads up: I’ll be on Fox Business “Making Money” with the excellent Charles Payne in the 2PM EST hour. Hope you can join us!
We have a lot to get to this morning…
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. As expected, yesterday’s FOMC statement and Powell presser was dovish. The markets liked it…
Read MoreGood Friday morning and Happy New Year! 2024 was another strong year for stocks, marking back to back years with gains of more than 20% in the S&P 500. In the VRA Portfolio we finished the year with gains of 27.1%. While it didn’t match 2023’s gains of 50.26%, it did mark 18 of 21 years that we’ve beaten the market.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. Another day featuring sharp early morning losses, followed by a strong rally in the afternoon which saw the Dow Jones rally close to 400 points off of the lows. That’s back to back days, one featuring a straight up move in Nasdaq and one day in the Dow Jones…
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. With less than 3 weeks to go to the election our political coverage will likely ramp up. That’s the case this morning, following Harris’ interview last night with Fox’s Bret Baier…
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. If you look up “wall of worry” in the dictionary you might just find a picture of the current set-up for our bull market...
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. After crashing 13% on Monday, Japan’s Nikkei has gained back 90% of those losses in the last few days. After Monday’s selloff, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) reversed course on hiking rates, saying that “doing so in unstable markets is a mistake we will not make”.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. It’s always great being on with Charles Payne. There aren’t many smart-money “talking heads”, but Charles is one of them. The reality is that the vast majority of media personalities know that “fear sells” so they pander to worst-case scenarios
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. We’ve dedicated much of the last week's VRA Letters to the “war risks” and corresponding action in the broad markets. We’re now just a few days away from Q1 tech earnings kicking off in style, with high profile names Tesla (next Tuesday), META (Wednesday) and Alphabet, Amazon, Intel and Microsoft set to report next Thursday. We see a great setup unfolding…
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. The AI “king of the hill” did it again yesterday with Nvidia posting (another) quarter with absolutely stunning growth.
NVDA Bottom Line, as Tyler outlined in his podcast yesterday:
- Earned $5.16/sh, beating already sky-high estimates of $4.64/sh.
- Revenue also came in above expectations, totaling $22.1 billion vs forecasts for $20.5 billion.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. Long-time VRA Members may remember that from the end of the bear market (10/13/22) we’ve written often about the “action” of this market and the fact that it’s largely been “textbook bull market action”. We’ve seen this repeating pattern again this week, as the Nasdaq and Semis continue to rally into market closes finishing at/near their highs of the day.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. I’m scheduled to be on Fox Business with Charles Payne this coming Monday. I think that makes 8 appearances this year. Always an honor as Charles is one of the really good guys, with a remarkable background to boot.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. Following the parabolic move higher in each major US equity index from the 10/27 lows…just as seasonality was turning bullish…on the VRA System we now have each index hitting extreme overbought levels, but importantly this is only on our shortest term momentum oscillators. Combined with the shockingly bullish technical signals that we’ve seen over the last 8 trading days it remains our view that important lows are in place and that pullbacks from here should continue to be bought (if we have pullbacks, that is).
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. All eyes were on the Fed yesterday, as they delivered their latest interest rate decision. The Fed left the fed funds rate unchanged at 5.50% after its two-day meeting.
The Fed is Done
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. Third quarter GDP was reported this AM and showed blistering growth in the US economy of 4.9%, beating estimates of 4.5%. This is the strongest economic growth since Q4 2021 when growth was just shy of 7% (coronavirus insanity). Of note in the report, consumer spending rose 4% in Q3, soaring past Q2 consumer spending, which came in at just .8%.
Read MoreLast year, and well into 2023, you could throw a rock at 100 mainstream economists…grouped together like sardines…and not hit a single one that wasn’t predicting a recession (outside of Evercore’s Ed Hyman, that is). It was essentially unanimous; the US was headed into a recession and it was barreling towards us like a freight train.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. July CPI (consumer prices) gained 3.2% on an annual basis, less than the 3.3% consensus from economists estimates. On a month-to-month basis, inflation increased just 0.2%, which was in-line with estimates while year/year CPI came in at 4.7%, matching estimates. The report also said real average weekly earnings were unchanged last month, in another positive sign that the Fed can be less concerned about a wage price spiral.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning. So I’m working out this morning when Delta Airlines reported earnings…a record beating quarter for both revenue and earnings…which included the statement that they are ordering a massive number of new planes to keep up with soaring travel demand…
Read MoreWe started the week with each US broad market index trading at (or “very" near) our most overbought designation on the VRA Investing System; “extreme overbought on steroids”…
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"Kip's VRA financial newsletter is a MUST read for every saavy investor in this country. Disregard it at your own peril. His mantra is my mantra. Kip Herriage's newsletter is my financial Bible."
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2008 Libertarian Vice Presidential candidate
Author, "The Conscience of a Libertarian"
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