VRA Investment Letter: What a Time to Be Alive. "The Big Bribe" Continues to Play Out. Another Significant Contrarian Set-up
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Good Friday morning. What a time to be alive. What a time to be an American.
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VRA Investment Letter: VRA Market & System Update. The Semis Should Lead Higher from Here.
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Good Thursday afternoon.
Late last week, we began advising our VRA Members that we had reached heavily overbought levels (short term) on the VRA System…
Read MoreVRA Investment Letter: Massive Wall of Worry Building…with Extraordinary Broadening Action. Goldman On Gold!
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Good Thursday morning. If you look up “wall of worry” in the dictionary you might just find a picture of the current set-up for our bull market...
Read MoreVRA Investment Letter: Japan's Crash & Fed Weakness. This Shakeout is a Classic Bull Market Buying Opportunity.
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Good Thursday morning. After crashing 13% on Monday, Japan’s Nikkei has gained back 90% of those losses in the last few days. After Monday’s selloff, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) reversed course on hiking rates, saying that “doing so in unstable markets is a mistake we will not make”.
Read MoreVRA Investment Letter: Excellent Setup Unfolding Into Tech Earnings. Massive Tech Disruption & Growth. Bull Market in Early Innings.
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Good Thursday morning. We’ve dedicated much of the last week's VRA Letters to the “war risks” and corresponding action in the broad markets. We’re now just a few days away from Q1 tech earnings kicking off in style, with high profile names Tesla (next Tuesday), META (Wednesday) and Alphabet, Amazon, Intel and Microsoft set to report next Thursday. We see a great setup unfolding…
Read MoreVRA Investment Letter: Facts vs Feelings and the PSYOP of Negativity. The Fed Pivots - VRA Inflection Points Have Arrived.
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Good Thursday morning. I’m scheduled to be on Fox Business with Charles Payne this coming Monday. I think that makes 8 appearances this year. Always an honor as Charles is one of the really good guys, with a remarkable background to boot.
Read MoreVRA Investment Letter: Third Quarter GDP Soared 4.9% With Consumers Leading the Way. VRA Market Update
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Good Thursday morning. Third quarter GDP was reported this AM and showed blistering growth in the US economy of 4.9%, beating estimates of 4.5%. This is the strongest economic growth since Q4 2021 when growth was just shy of 7% (coronavirus insanity). Of note in the report, consumer spending rose 4% in Q3, soaring past Q2 consumer spending, which came in at just .8%.
Read MoreVRA Investment Letter: Back Up the Truck. Set-Ups That Say "Buy Now". Fresh Bond Market Buy Signals
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Good Thursday morning. This morning's CPI report came in slightly above estimates with September prices paid for consumers rising .04% month/month vs estimates of .03%. Year over year, core CPI came in at 4.1% vs estimates of 4.1%.
Read MoreVRA Investment Letter: The Worst Week for Stocks Ends. Roaring 2020's; US Economy Remains Strong.
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Good Friday morning. The worst week of the year for US equity markets ends today, punctuated by this week’s FOMC meeting/statement and J Powell presser, which…once again…led to a steep sell-off in stocks…Powell’s specialty.
Read MoreVRA Investment Update: Q3 GDP Growth Est Now 5.8%. Our Roaring 20's Megatrends Hard at Work. Buffet Loves Housing.
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Last year, and well into 2023, you could throw a rock at 100 mainstream economists…grouped together like sardines…and not hit a single one that wasn’t predicting a recession (outside of Evercore’s Ed Hyman, that is). It was essentially unanimous; the US was headed into a recession and it was barreling towards us like a freight train.
Read MoreVRA Investment Update: Q2 Earnings; What Recession? Record Liquidity Will Keep Driving Stocks Higher.
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Good Thursday morning. A bit of air is coming out of the tech melt-up move higher this AM, post earnings reports, as Netflix (-6%), VRA 10-bagger Tesla (-4%) and IBM (-2%) are each selling off this AM. The moves higher in each has been parabolic this year and with our markets trading at extreme overbought levels on the VRA System, a shake-out does not surprise. Nasdaq is -120 in premarket.
Read MoreVRA Investment Update: Soaring Transportation and Housing Industries; It's Boom Time.
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Good Thursday morning. So I’m working out this morning when Delta Airlines reported earnings…a record beating quarter for both revenue and earnings…which included the statement that they are ordering a massive number of new planes to keep up with soaring travel demand…
Read MoreVRA Investment Update: Tesla, Semis and Housing; Extreme Overbought on Steroids. "Buy the Dip" Remains the Play.
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We started the week with each US broad market index trading at (or “very" near) our most overbought designation on the VRA Investing System; “extreme overbought on steroids”…
Read MoreVRA Letter: The DNA of Our New Bull Market. I'm Getting a 1995–2000 Vibe. Something Special This Way Comes.
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Do you believe in history repeating?
I’m Getting a 1995–2000 Vibe.
From 1995–2000, Nasdaq rose from 750 to 5132, soaring 584%. Over a 3 year time frame more than 500 companies went public that more than doubled on their first day of trading.
Read MoreVRA Investment Update: Fox Business; When The Generals Lead, the Troops Fall in Line. Inflation Does Have An Upside.
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Good Thursday morning. Charles Payne of Fox Business had me back on his show ‘Making Money’ yesterday and the events surrounding it were interesting. Here’s how it works: First, one of Charles producers emails you a day or two before and ask if you’re available for the show. Second, they ask you to send over your latest “hit” (VRA Letter). I’m assuming they do this so they can see whether or not what you’re saying is interesting and/or worthy of being on air. Third, they let you know whether or not you’re officially invited onto the show.
Read MoreVRA Investment Update: Textbook Bull Market Meets Overbought. Buy the Rumor, Sell the News?
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It hasn’t been straight up from the 10/13 bear market lows but in (most) ways this has been a textbook bull market move higher. From the overwhelming level of fear from 3 bear markets in 4 years to last years August — October waterfall mini-meltdown that culminated in the 10/13 bear market capitulation, from those lows the move higher has checked all of the “new bull market” boxes.
Read MoreVRA Investment Update: Disinflation Continues. Yes, This is a Bull Market. More Contrarian Buy Signals
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Breaking; we just learned that the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge (core PCE) fell to 4.2% in March from 5.1% in February. This marks 8 straight months that we’ve had “disinflation”. With both US and European GDP reports coming in weak, we reiterate our call for the Fed to cease rate hikes and to begin cutting rates. The 10 year yield is 3.44% this AM while the Fed funds rate is 5%. The Fed never leads, they only follow. The markets are screaming at the Fed to “pause and pivot”.
Read MoreVRA Investment Update: Textbook Front-Running Liftoff into April. Semis Are Breaking Out (again). New Buy Signal for Precious Metals and Miners.
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Good Thursday morning all. A major investing theme, as taught to me in my 20’s by both of my mentors (Ted Parsons and Mike Metz, RIP gentlemen) goes like this;
Read MoreVRA Investment Update: Sentiment Hitting 90th Percentile Bearish Readings. Analytics Say “Buy".
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Another volatile day of trading yesterday influenced by fears of global bank runs. Of note, in the last two trading sessions the smart money hour was met with strong buying pressure (with tech leading the way).
Read MoreVRA Investment Update: Follow the Semis & Buy The Dip. Economic Acceleration; The Trump Economic Miracle
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Breaking: Treasury yields lost momentum this AM, with stock markets reversing higher, after the Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims rose to 211K last week, up from 190K the week before and more than the 195K forecast by analysts. The 10-year yield sits at 3.96%, after trading above 4% before the data. The data indicates the labor market may be weakening (due to higher interest rates).
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