VRA Investment Letter: VRA Quick Hitters - 2025 Returns, Government Shutdown, Value Stocks Catch-Up, Gold & The Miners.
/Good Friday morning. We have a few VRA Quick Hitters for you this AM:
1.) 2025 Returns: Broad Market & VRA Portfolio
Q3 ended with each major index higher, led by the Russell 2000 which put up gains of 12%. For the full year here are the returns through 9/30/25:
– S&P 500: +14.1%
– Dow Jones: +9%
– Nasdaq: +17.3%
– Russell 2000: +9.2%
Through 9/30/25 the VRA Portfolio is up 41.8% (net-net of all trades/positions), outperforming our primary bogey (Russell 2000) by 4.5 x.
Our top performers for the year:
– Nvidia: +75.5%
– Galaxy Digital: +99%
– Snowline Gold: +122%
– Vista Gold: +287%
In addition, our precious metals positions have put up gains of 47% (gold) with silver soaring 61%. As we kicked off 2025 our target for gold was $4000/oz, meaning we’re going to wind up on the low side (likely by a lot). Silver is trading at $47.50 this AM, just $2/oz from ATH.
VRA Bottom Line: assuming things don’t go horribly wrong over the final 3 months of 2025, this year will mark 19/22 years that the VRA Portfolio has outperformed the market. Not only is Q4 the best month of the year for stocks but as Tyler reminded me yesterday, it’s also the best quarter for Bitcoin.
Since 2015, BTC has put up average gains of 57.5% in Q4 (the second best quarter for BTC is Q2, with gains of 33%). Last trade: $123,336 up nearly 10% on the week. We own and recommend BTC and/or IBIT. BTC will have to put up Q4 returns of 70% to reach our original year-end target of $200,000.
2.) Government Shutdown
We did it, as the US government officially closed Wednesday night at midnight.
Let the gnashing of teeth begin, with warnings from the left that retirees won’t receive their social security checks (wrong, it’s mandatory). As to government employees, we’re looking forward to seeing how many of the 2.6 million are let go (not including USPS). As to the military, 2013 was the only shutdown that we can find where they were not paid on time (however that was quickly fixed, with all back pay made right). We think the left has dramatically overplayed their hands here…and they know it. It was a stroke of genius positioning the left as the party that shut down the government over illegals being provided with free healthcare, a losing hand if we’ve ever seen one.
If the government wasn’t shut down, this morning we’d be talking about the BLS employment data for September. IMO it’s glorious that we don’t have to waste our time with this nonsense. As we’ve seen for many years, BLS data collection and dissemination has been pathetic. Here’e the big picture economic data that matters most; as big of a 5 year rush as 1995–2000 was for me, this Innovation Revolution is going to make it look like a fad of a bull market. Within 2 years GDP growth will surpass 8–10% with a rip roaring economy and markets that will double every 3–4 years. We’re staying locked in for what will be a generational bull market with obscene levels of wealth creation occurring throughout the US (and globally). Avoiding pessimists and permabears will serve you extraordinarily well.
3.) Value Stocks Will Start Playing Catch-up
I’m sure many are wondering why we’re wasting our time with energy stocks and homebuilders when all of the action is in the tech arena. It’s more than a fair question. But here’s the thing; value stocks have underperformed for an extended period and as the US/global economy continues to gain traction, these two areas are going to play some serious catch-up…
Below, in the non-leveraged ETF’s (better for charting purposes) we see that XLE is trading at its lower trend line thats been in place since April, with a nice bullish channel developing (it’s also heavily oversold on the VRA System). Trump wants oil prices to stay low for as long as possible….he knows its the best way to insure that inflation does not return (and his mid-east buddies are more than happy to oblige…staying in Trumps good graces is now considered mandatory). But watch what happens as the economy continues to build strength and as data centers require as much energy as possible. We’ll continue to rely on the VRA System to trade these ETF’s, where we’ve booked more than 4000% in net profits over the last decade. It’s our bread and butter for beating Mr. Market.
As to the homebuilders, in XHB below we see a similar setup to XLE, with XHB both heavily oversold and hitting its lower trend line, that’s also been in place since April.
As with ERX, we’ll continue to rely on the VRA System to trade Leveraged ETFs (see our VRA Portfolio here). We don’t want to marry either of these as they are trading vehicles only. Housing is our most important leading economic indicator….housing and the semis lead everything.
4) Gold and Miners; Overbought on Steroids
As bullish as we’ve been on gold and the miners, in my career I’ve never seen them quite as OB as they are today. GDX (miner ETF) is not as OB but still, big time OB.
Again, not a reason to sell, but we should not be surprised by a shakeout. HOWEVER, this is also the most bullish time frame for PM’s and miners and there’s something special going on with gold (global monetization, via gold and BTC, that we’ve been talking about). Best advice here is to keep buying gold and miners each month, as part of your dollar cost averaging program. For our newer VRA Readers, I wish I still had the emails and Twitter feedback I’ve received over the years from financial planners that called us “irresponsible” for recommending that investors save in gold, rather than in fiat currency (money markets, CD’s, etc). These folks should look in a mirror. Talk about irresponsible advice, as the USD continues to be printed into oblivion.
Until next time, thanks again for reading. Have a good weekend all.
Kip
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