Following yesterday’s hot ADP jobs report we just learned that 223,000 jobs were created in the month of December, beating estimates in the 203,000 range, with the official unemployment rate falling to 3.5% from last months 3.7% (as more people enter the labor force and the Labor Force Participation Rate falls).
Read MoreGood Friday morning all and hope you had a great Christmas. Welcome to the final trading day of 2022. We start today's trading with 3 days left in the Santa Claus rally (today and first 2 days of 2023) and roughly 1 month left for the January effect, where history tells us that small caps outperform big cap stocks by a sizable margin, with tax loss selling in small caps the culprit for their year-end weakness.
Read MoreJ Powell came heavy Wednesday, raising rates as expected by .50%, but hawkish without question, targeting a peak rate of 5.1%. While the Fed broadly likes what they see regarding inflationary trends, their big concern is employment, specifically wage pressure/inflation. This is what has the equity markets concerned…will the Fed break something again…this time the jobs market.
Read MoreGood Thursday afternoon all. The markets look to be setting up for a catapult move higher into year end. The technicals are forming around the 200 dma (after a near parabolic move higher post the 10/13 capitulation into heavily overbought readings), in what looks to me to be a classic consolidation pattern in advance of both the santa claus rally and January effect bullish time frames.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Not only was yesterday's huge move higher in stocks a textbook display of a new bull market (with semis up 5%, nasdaq +4%, leading the way higher), but we saw it in the internals as well with an 88% upside volume day for NYSE and near 7:1 advance/decline. No one was buying J Powells hawkish comments…the markets know what’s coming next (rate cuts).
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. “Shock and awe” might be the best way to describe the short covering melt-up yesterday as stocks had their best day since the end of coronavirus insanity.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. If you were as confused as 99% of Wall Street and the English speaking people of the world were by Fed Chair J Powells presser yesterday, where he reverted to previous form and crushed the stock market, I encourage you to listen to Tylers podcast from yesterday afternoon:
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. As we’ve covered over the last year, the current bear market…the 3rd in 4 years…actually started in February 2021. That’s when groups such as SPACs, meme stocks, China, biotechnology, etc hit a top and started to decline.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. After solid back to back days our markets gave a bit of it back yesterday but we remain buyers into what we expect to be a solid move higher into the midterms and year end. Sentiment, seasonality and analytics are combining to make a strong case for a significant bear market rally.
Read MoreThe short-covering move higher to start the week marked the best start to a 4th quarter since 1938. The move may have been fueled by short covering and the extreme oversold (on steroid) conditions that we’ve been pointing out.
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. After Wednesday’s 2–3% ramp higher (S&P 500, Nasdaq, R2K) it sure felt like the lows were in as we had a 90% up-volume day in NYSE with 7:1 advance/decline and as S&P 500 put in an outside day (technical buy signal).
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. I’ll be on with our great friend Wayne Allyn Root tonight on the Wayne Root Show at 8:30 PM EST. Listen in on USARadio.com or via Wayne’s site; RootForAmerica.com. We’ll be talking about this (bear) market and the soon to be extreme oversold conditions…
Read MoreGood Sunday. I have posted this VRA Letter each 9/11 since 2006 (updated with relevant information/facts), when my research and due diligence made it no longer possible to remain silent. Today marks a somber 21 years since 9/11/01.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. Following last Friday's jobs report the markets moved sharply higher, only to give up all of its gains and then close lower by 1% across the board on concerns that Russia would cut off European gas supplies (which happened).
Read MoreGood Thursday afternoon all. The Fed minutes from the July meeting are out and, surprise surprise, they show a Fed with multiple members expressing concerns about tightening rates too much. Good. That means they are actually following the data,
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all. In my 36 years in the business I’ve never seen this many people bearish on the markets, the economy and our future. Fear levels are extraordinarily high. And it's not that I don’t get it….I get it, believe me.
Read More18 months ago, my oldest son Tyler and I set out on a labor of love. We knew it wouldn’t be easy. We figured there’d be people against us. We were right, the bannings from Twitter, Medium, PayPal and YouTube, etc proved it.
Read MoreGood Thursday morning all, Q2 GDP — Recession in the US Second quarter GDP just came in at a negative .9%, meaning back to back negative quarters and the technical definition of a recession. First, I owe Wayne Root a Las Vegas dinner.
Read MoreGood Friday morning all. Another big market comeback yesterday, featuring a Dow Jones that rallied from -350 to close +162, led once again by Nasdaq (+1.4%) and Semis (1.7%) and our new repeating pattern of MUCH better internals. This bear market rally looks and feels like it has the potential to be the first big one that we’ve had to date.
Read MoreGood Thursday afternoon all. Yesterday's recovery move higher, on the backs of that horrendous CPI report, was intriguing. Yes, each index finished lower but “well” off of their lows as the semis actually finished up nearly 1% with internals that were only slightly negative.
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"Kip's VRA financial newsletter is a MUST read for every saavy investor in this country. Disregard it at your own peril. His mantra is my mantra. Kip Herriage's newsletter is my financial Bible."
--Wayne Allyn Root
2008 Libertarian Vice Presidential candidate
Author, "The Conscience of a Libertarian"
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